Rarraba Hanyoyin Tattalin Arzikin Jama'a

Rarraba Hanyoyin Tattalin Arziki (SSPs) yanayi ne na sauye-sauyen zamantakewar tattalin arzikin duniya har zuwa 2100. Ana amfani da su don samun yanayin fitar da iskar gas tareda manufofin yanayi daban-daban.

SSPs sun tsara taswira a cikin ƙalubalen don ragewa / daidaita sararin samaniya

Ƙididdigar yanayi CO₂ ta SSP acikin ƙarni na 21st (wanda MAGICC7 yayi, mai sauƙi/raguwar yanayin yanayi mai rikitarwa). Kowane wurin bayanai yana wakiltar matsakaitan ƙididdiga masu ƙima waɗanda aka samar daga ƙirar ƙima guda biyar (IMAGE, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM, AIM, REMIND-MAgPIE, da GCAM4).

Hasashen iskar methane

Abubuwan da ke faruwa sune:

• SSP1: Dorewa (Daukar Green Road)
• SSP2: Tsakiyar Hanya
• SSP3: Kishiyantar Yanki (Hanyar Rocky)
• SSP4: Rashin daidaito (A Rarraba Hanya)
• SSP5: Ci gaban Burbushin mai (Dauke Babbar Hanya)

Anyi amfani dasu don taimakawa wajen samar da Rahoton Ƙididdigar IPCC na shida game da sauyin yanayi, wanda aka buga a ranar 9 ga Agusta 2021.

SSPs suna bada labari da ke bayyana madadin cigaban zamantakewa da tattalin arziki. Waɗannan layukan tatsuniyoyin ƙididdiga ne na ƙayyadaddun dabaru masu alaƙa da abubuwan bada labari ga junansu.Dangane da abubuwan ƙididdigewa, suna bada bayanan da ke rakiyar al'amuran al'umma na ƙasa, birane da GDP (kowace mutum).Ana iya ƙididdige SSPs tareda Samfuran Haɗaɗɗen Haɗe-haɗe (IAMs), don bincika hanyoyin da za' a

aiya zuwa nan gaba duka dangane da hanyoyin tattalin arziki dayna.

Bayanin SSPs

SSP1: Dorewa (Dauke Titin Koren)

"Duniya tana motsawa sannu a hankali, amma a ko'ina, zuwa ga hanya mai dorewa, tana mai da hankali kan ci gaba mai ma'ana wanda ke mutunta iyakokin muhalli da aka annabta.Gudanar da ayyukan gama gari na duniya sannu a hankali yana haɓakawa, saka hannun jari na ilimi da kiwon lafiya yana haɓaka canjin alƙaluma, kuma fifikon haɓakar tattalin arziƙin yana karkata zuwa babban fifiko kan jin daɗin ɗan adam. Sakamakon karuwar himma don cimma burin cigaba, an rage rashin daidaito a ko'ina cikin kasashe. An karkatar da amfani zuwa ƙananan haɓakar kayan abu da ƙananan albarkatu da ƙarfin kuzari.

SSP2: Tsakiyar hanya

"Duniya na bin hanyar da al'amuran zamantakewa, tattalin arziki,da fasaha ba su sauya ba sosai daga tsarin tarihi.Cigaba da haɓɓakar kuɗin shiga na tafiya ba daidai ba, yayin da wasu ƙasashe ke samun cigaba mai kyau yayin da wasu suka gaza cika tsammanin. Cibiyoyin duniya da na ƙasa suna aiki tuƙuru amma suna samun sannu a hankali wajen cimma burin ci gaba mai dorewa. Tsarin muhalli yana fuskantar lalacewa, kodayake akwai wasu haɓakawa kuma gabaɗayan ƙarfin albarkatu da amfani da makamashi yana raguwa. Girman yawan jama'a a duniya yana da matsakaici kuma yana raguwa a rabin na biyu na karni.Rashin daidaiton kudin shiga yana ci gaba ko inganta sannu a hankali kuma ƙalubalen rage rauni ga canje-canjen al'umma da muhalli sun kasance."

SSP3: Kishiya ta yanki (A Rocky Road)

"Kishin kasa mai tasowa, damuwa game da gasa da tsaro, da rikice-rikicen yanki sun tura kasashe su kara mayar da hankali kan batutuwan cikin gida ko, a mafi yawansu, na yanki. Manufofin suna canzawa cikin lokaci don su zama masu karkata zuwa ga al'amuran tsaro na ƙasa da na yanki. Kasashe suna mai da hankali kan cimma burin samar da makamashi da samar da abinci a yankunan su ta hanyar samar da cigaba mai fa'ida. Zuba jari a ilimi da cigaban fasaha ya ragu. Cigaban tattalin arziƙin yana jinkirin, cin abinci yana da ƙarfi da kayan aiki, kuma rashin daidaituwa ya cigaba ko ƙara tsananta akan lokaci. Girman yawan jama'a yana da ƙasa a masana'antu kuma yana da yawa a ƙasashe masu tasowa. Ƙananan fifiko na kasa da kasa don magance matsalolin muhalli yana haifar da mummunar lalacewar muhalli a wasu yankuna.

SSP4: Rashin dai-daito (A Rarraba Hanya)

"Sakamakon saka hannun jarin da bai dace ba acikin jarin dan Adam, haɗeda karuwar rarrabuwar kawuna a damar tattalin arziki da karfin siyasa,yana haifar da karuwar rashin dai-daito da rarrabuwar kawuna a faɗin ƙasa da ƙasa.A tsawon lokaci, gibi yana fadada tsakanin al'ummar da ke da alaƙa da ƙasashen duniya waɗanda ke bada gudummawa ga ilimi da jari-hujja na tattalin arzikin duniya, da kuma tarin rarrabuwar kawuna na ƙananan kudaden shiga, marasa ilimi waɗanda ke aiki a cikin tattalin arziƙin ƙwadago, ƙarancin fasaha.Haɗin kai tsakanin al'umma yana ƙasƙantar da kai kuma rikice-rikice da tashin hankali sun zama ruwan dare gama gari.Cigaban fasaha yana da yawa acikin manyan tattalin arziki da sassa.Bangaren makamashin da ke da alaƙa a duniya ya bambanta, tare da saka hannun jari acikin abubuwan da ke da ƙarfin carbon kamar kwal da mai da ba na al'ada ba,amma har ma da ƙarancin makamashin carbon.Manufofin muhalli sun fi mayar da hankali ne kan al'amuran gida a kusa da yankunan tsakiya da masu samun kudin shiga.

SSP5: Ci gaban Burbushin Fueled (Dauke Babbar Hanya)

"Wannan duniyar ta bada ƙarin imani ga kasuwanni masu fafatawa, kirkire-kirkire da ƙungiyoyin haɗin gwiwa don samar da ci gaban fasaha cikin sauri da bunƙasa jarin ɗan adam a matsayin hanyar samun cigaba mai dorewa. Kasuwannin duniya suna ƙara haɗawa. Akwai kuma zuba jari mai karfi a fannin kiwon lafiya, ilimi, da cibiyoyi don bunkasa jarin dan Adam da zamantakewa.A sa'i ɗaya kuma, yunƙurin samar da ci gaban tattalin arziki da zamantakewar al'umma yana tareda yin amfani da dumbin albarkatun man fetur da kuma amfani da albarkatu da ingantaccen salon rayuwa a duniya.Duk waɗannan abubuwan suna haifar da haɓakar tattalin arzikin duniya cikin sauri, yayin da yawan al'ummar duniya ke ƙaruwa da raguwa a cikin ƙarni na 21st.Anyi nasarar sarrafa matsalolin muhalli na gida kamar gurɓataccen iska. Akwai bangaskiya cikin ikon sarrafa tsarin zamantakewa da muhalli yadda ya kamata, gami da injiniyan ƙasa idan ya cancanta.

Hasashen zafin SSP daga Rahoton Ƙimar IPCC na Shida

Rahoton kimantawa na shida na IPCC ya tantance sakamakon zafin da aka yi hasashe na saiti na yanayi biyar waɗanda suka dogara da tsarin SSPs. Sunayen waɗannan al'amuran sun ƙunshi SSP wanda aka kafa su (SSP1-SSP5), haɗe da matakin da ake tsammani na tilasta radiyo acikin shekara ta 2100 (1.9 zuwa 8.5 W/m²). Wannan yana haifar da sunaye na labari SSPx-yz kamar yadda aka jera a ƙasa.Samfuri:AR6 SSP table

The IPCC Sixth report did not estimate the likelihoods of the scenarios but a 2020 commentary described SSP5–8.5 as highly unlikely, SSP3–7.0 as unlikely, and SSP2–4.5 as likely.

However, a report citing the above commentary shows that RCP8.5 is the best match to the cumulative emissions from 2005 to 2020.

Duba kuma

• Rahoto na Musamman akan Al'amuran Fitowa
• Tafarkin Tattaunawa Mai Wakilci
• Haɗin Model Intercomparison Project

Sources

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• Riahi et al., The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global Environmental Change, 42, 153-168. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009